Friday, October 24, 2008

BC picks!

I have some great stories from the Weezer concert. Thanks to The Horse Babe and Jason the Music God for the tickets. I promise to get that posted this weekend.

In the meantime, for those of you who want to wager on the BC this weekend, here is the tip sheet for Friday/Saturday that I did for SHRP...

FRIDAY PICKS

THIRD RACE (filly and mare sprint): 5 – Indian Blessing, 1 Magnificence, 3-Intagaroo, 12-Ventura, 10-Miraculous Miss.

Indian Blessing looks like the best horse, but she's only run on the fake tracks once. I like the other three to all be in the mix. Magnificence might be a good horse to key at a price. Not a strong win candidate, but she should hit the board.

FOURTH RACE (12-Heart Shaped, 10-Beyond Our Reach, 1-April Pride, 6-Freedom Rings.

This one is wide open and I do not have a good feel for it at all. When in doubt, I just go with the Euros on the turf. I wouldn't play it, but if you must, maybe Heart Shaped across the board.

FIFTH RACE 10-Stardom Bound, 4-Sky Diva, 12-Dream Express, 6-Van Lear Rose.

Another tough one. I like Stardom Bound and Sky Diva the best. Also think Van Lear Rose can hit the board. Also, Black Magic Mama might hit the board at a huge price so throw her on the bottom of your bets.

SIXTH RACE (8-Halfway to Heaven, 10-Pure Clan, 7-Mauralaukana, 5-Wait a While).

Good race – I think one of these four wins the race. Pure Clan might be the upsetter.

SEVENTH RACE (1-Zenyatta, 3-Cocoa Beach, 5—Carriage Trail, 4-Music Note.

Don't see them beating Zenyatta, although Cocoa Beach might be good enough. Zenyatta has only been 1 1/8 miles once and that was her closest race, so maybe that is a good enough excuse to try to beat her. But I would just hammer the 1-3 and 1-5 exactas.

SATURDAY PICKS


RACE ONE (4-Sixties Icon, 7-Big Booster, 3-Delightful Kiss, 1-Church Service).


Really like this race. I would consider keying Big Booster in all three spots in the tri. If Sixties Icon is right, he kills this group, but he might not like the surface, and Big Booster seems to be the most consistent horse. Keep an eye on longshot Church Service.


RACE TWO (13-Get Funky, 10-California Flag, 14-Mr Nightlinger, 6-Storm Treasure.


Love Get Funky to get a perfect trip behind the dueling California Flag and Mr Nightlinger. Think he turns the tables on Flag this time at a decent price. And watch for Storm Treasure to pick up the pieces late to hit the board at a monster price.


RACE THREE (8-Well Armed, 7-Albertus Maximus, 1-Lewis Michael, 12-Lord Admiral)


Was hoping Well Armed would go in the Classic, because thought he had a shot to knock off Curlin. He should be close to a lock in this, although he will face more internal early pressure here and he is probably a better horse going slightly longer. Like Albertus, Lewis and Lord to run behind him in the exactas and tris. Don't leave Slew's Tiznow and My Pal Charlie out of the bottom of your tris.


RACE FOUR (1-Shakis, 2-Kip Deville, 5-Daytona, 4-Goldikova)


One of the hardest races on the card. Hard to imagine Kip Deville won't bounce back from a poor effort on the weird turf course at Woodbine. But Shakis is consistent and will be coming on late. If Daytona can shake free early, look out, but that rarely happens in this race. Goldikova is a Euro monster and Whatsthescript loves the surface so watch our for them as well.


RACE FIVE (4-Square Eddie, 3-Terrain, 12-Bushranger, 11-Pioneer of the Nile).


Another very tough race. Square Eddie was huge in his first start over a fake surface, and anything close to a repeat makes him tough here. Bushranger faced much tougher in Europe and if his form transfers, look out.


RACE SIX (3-Westphalia, 4-Donativum, 11-Bittel Road, 5-Relatively Ready).


Bittel Road will likely take most of the money, but you have to think the Europeans are standouts here. Westphalia and Donativum appear to be the top two of the Euros. If they don't run, it's wide open, but expect one of those two to get it done.


RACE SEVEN (9-Fatal Bullet, 2-Street Boss, 8-In Summation, 1-Cost of Freedom).


Fatal Bullet is a fake track specialist who should get a perfect trip sitting off the speed and turn it on late. Will be a square price and should be in the mix. Don't like his rider, but other than that, all systems are go. Street Boss and In Summation like the Cali. tracks and can close. Defending champ Midnight Lute is unbeatable on his best, but you never know when it is coming. Will play against him.


RACE EIGHT (4-Soldier of Fortune, 9-Conduit, 2-Red Rocks, 3-Grand Couterier).


Europeans are simply light years better on the turf going long. Soldier of Fortune was third in the Arc, the toughest turf race in the world. If he handles the ship, he rolls here. If not, watch for Conduit. Red Rocks won this race in 06 and was third last year so you know he can handle the tight turns.


RACE NINE (1-Go Between, 4-Duke of Marmalade, 9-Curlin, 3-Tiago).


Curlin has been the best horse in the world for two years. But there is a reason his connections have avoided synthetic surfaces. He is vulnerable here. A loss won't diminish his legacy, and a victory confirms what we already know. Go Between is a monster on these surfaces. Maybe he is running for second behind Curlin, but you can count on him to run a big race. Duke of Marmalade wasn't that far back in the Arc and if he handles the surface, he rolls. After that, Tiago, Champs Elysees, Student Council -- those are all horses that could hit the board. Curlin is the best horse, but the best horse might not win. If he doesn't, plan to cash in.

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